The upcoming debate over Social Security should make Democrats nervous.
The quest for reform is beginning to look an awful like the healthcare debate that dominated the 2008 elections.
And we know how that turned out...
Remember back to 2008.
Healthcare was one of the dominant policy issues among voters - trailing only the war in Iraq in importance.
The reason was the perception among Americans that rapidly rising healthcare costs were threatening the financial security of families and the economic health of the nation.
Increases in health care costs had outstripped inflation for many years, forcing Americans to devote an ever-higher portion of their salary to receive the same goods.
The 2008 elections rolled around and Democrats (at least in perception) took the lead on the issue.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both had detailed plans - attempting to finish the job they started in Bill Clinton's first term.
You probably still remember their plans and talking points - universal coverage, minimum coverage standards, and a national insurance program.
Does anyone remember what John McCain's plan was? I'm sure it had something to do with free-market reforms, but other than that, I've got nothing.
Regardless of whether he had a plan, the perception was that it was a dominant issue for Democrats and was on the backburner for Republicans.
I'm not saying Social Security will represent the same driving force in 2010.
Nevertheless, there are some interesting parallels.
Consider, that 73 percent of people in 2008 said that the U.
S.
healthcare system was in a "state of crisis" or "has major problems.
" Today, 77 percent of people say the same thing about the current state of the Social Security system.
Sensing that the public is not liking what they see out of one of the federal government's biggest programs, Barack Obama has gone on the offensive.
He argued that Republicans are "pushing to make privatizing Social Security a key part of their legislative agenda if they win a majority in Congress this fall.
" He went on, contending that Republican plans were an ill-conceived idea that would add trillions to the debt while destroying Social Security as we know it.
Despite the fact that Obama's claims were thoroughly dismissed by the non-partisan Factcheck.
org, Republicans should be willing to embrace them.
The fact is, Social Security, like the healthcare system is failing.
Despite Harry Reid's insistence that "the so-called Social Security crisis exists in only one place - the minds of Republicans," the program is in fact, in dire financial straights.
But don't take it from me.
The nonpartisan CBO recently said,

[A] longer-term decline in the trust funds' financial condition is inevitable under current law, because the retirement of the baby-boom generation will cause benefit payments to increase more than revenues.
CBO anticipates that a primary deficit will return in 2016 and that deficit will reach $77 billion in 2020.

Do the Democrats have a plan to fix this? Not that I can find.
Turns out they are happy to pull a Kevin Bacon is Animal House and say "Remain calm.
All is well...
ALL IS WELL!" as they are run over by the problem.
Fixing Social Security is a huge issue, one that many voters believe is facing a crisis, and the Democrats are content to leave it on the backburner.
Kinda like Republicans and healthcare circa 2008.
The inverse parallel continues when it comes to the party's solutions.
Democrats, to the extent that they have a solution, is to continue the program as it exists.
What else can you do when you fail to admit there is a problem in the first place? They point to the annual surpluses that the Social Security program has been stashing away as a sign of its fiscal health.
Sure, its ledger ain't lookin so hot right now, but it's a recession, nothing is exactly flush with cash.
After all, aren't these little financial blips the reason we have the Social Security Trust Fund.
Well, I would say "touché," concede, and run away with my tail between my legs if one, the Social Security Trust Fund existed or, two, this was nothing more than a blip.
Though I won't get into the nitty-gritty of why the Trust Fund is nothing but a sham, suffice it to say that the federal government isn't particularly adept at letting money sit around without spending it.
Turns out the government has been using Social Security's annual surpluses to partially mask its horrendous bottom line.
It then replaces the raided funds with a nice little IOU.
Sadly, the IOU represents nothing more than additional debt to a government that is already up to its necks in debt.
Second, this is a lot more than a blip.
According to the 2009 Social Security Trustees Report, Social Security will begin running deficits this year.
There will then be a few years of tiny surpluses before the program dips permanently into the red.
As the Heritage Foundation explains,

"In net present value terms, Social Security owes $7.
7 trillion more in benefits than it will receive in taxes.
This consists of $2.
4 trillion to repay the special issue bonds in the trust fund and $5.
3 trillion to pay benefits after the trust fund is exhausted in 2037.
"

Harry Reid's "most successful social program in the history of the world" is facing a bleak future.
The government failed.
As we've learned through the healthcare debate, adding government is generally Democrats favored policy-answer to most problems.
Unfortunately, for Democrats you can't make Social Security any more government run.
It tried, it's failing, and millions of retirees are on the hook.
(Authors aside: are we glimpsing the future of healthcare?) But Republicans have actual solutions.
Namely, allow individuals the right to do the same thing with their retirement money as members of Congress and federal workers do.
Rather than putting your money in a trust fund (which the government is frittering away) you'll have the choice (keyword that Democrats often leave out) to place a portion of your payroll tax in a government-managed account.
Let me be clear, we're not talking about total privatization, we're not talking about giving "your benefits to the whims of Wall Street traders," and we're not talking about a mandate.
Despite all that the plan is not, it is a plan.
A plan that the CBO says will make the program permanently solvent.
In 2008 Democrats coasted to victory largely because of their promises to reform a broken healthcare system.
Republicans should not shy away from using Social Security's obvious problems to undo those gains.