Is the world today looking at another pandemic due to the avian influenza virus? The increasing cases of the avian influenza virus, the global spreading of the disease and the fact that many scientists believe that it is not a matter of if but when we will experience it, is making this a global question. What is making some believe this is highly probable?

To answer that question we first need to examine what the avian influenza is, and some of its history.

Avian Influenza, also known as bird flu is an illness that is caused by avian influenza viruses. These viruses occur naturally amongst wild birds and are carried in their intestines. These viruses are very contagious and normally will not make wild birds sick however; they can be extremely dangerous to domestic birds such as Turkeys, Chickens, and Ducks making them extremely sick and can lead to death.

The Avian Flu was first recorded in Italy more than 100 years ago in 1878. As the cause of a large amount of deaths in Poultry it became known as €Fowl Plague€. This disease was recorded in the United States in 1924-25, and then again in 1929. In 1955, it was determined that the virus causing Fowl Plague was one of the influenza viruses. The official designation for the bird flu is Influenza-A H5N1. This strain was originally first isolated in birds from South Africa in 1961.

Originally thought only to infect birds this flu received unprecedented publicity in 1997 when for the first time the virus was transmitted to humans. During this period 18 people were hospitalized and 6 died. Authorities in an attempt to control the outbreak killed approximately 1.5 million chickens. This was in an attempt to remove the source of the virus.
Since 1997 there have been confirmed cases of humans infected with the virus. Two children from Hong Kong were infected that year but both children recovered.
In 2003 two members of a Hong Kong family were infected after traveling to China. One person died. The cause was never determined on where or how those two people were infected. Later back in China another family member died of a respiratory illness but no testing was done at that time.
Also in 2003 the Netherlands reported more than 80 cases of avian influenza-A among poultry workers and their families. One patient died. At that time there seemed to be some evidence of human to human transmissions. These outbreaks tapered off in the spring of 2004 but then re-emerged in the summer.
As of Sept 19, 2005 there have been 114 confirmed human cases of bird flu with 59 of them being fatal. Human cases of the disease have been reported in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Sustained person to person transmission has not occurred but there is another report of suspected human to human transmission from Thailand in fall of 2004. The virus recently has shown the ability to jump from species to species with cats, pigs, tigers and leopards becoming infected. Areas affected by H5N1 avian influenza in