Mathematics is an exact science. No argument there. The same experts often tell us that the dice have no memory and therefore each roll of the dice have the same precise chance of repeating as the last. Sounds logical, but let's take a closer look.

The laws of physics dictate that as anything grows older or lasts longer, it's life expectancy grows shorter. We know that dice and the roulette wheel are inanimate objects. But, if they were not governed by the same physical laws, than repeating decisions of 30 to 50 would be a normal occurrence and happen on a regular basis.

If this were the case, there would be no such games as craps or roulette. The following exercise is designed to show how the laws of probability affect the outcome in the game of craps. More importantly it will give the serious player and understanding of what they can expect in any session of play.

The Rule of 144

Two dice have six numbers on each cube and eleven possible numbers that can be rolled. With two dice the combination of numbers that can be rolled are 36
(6 x 6 = 36). The following will indicate the probable outcome of these decisions in 36 rolls.

The 2 & 12 should appear one time each; 3 & 11 should appear twice each; 4 & 10 are expected to appear three times each; 5 & 9 should appear four times each; 6 & 8 is expected to appear 5 times each; and number 7 should appear 6 times. In reality, thirty-six rolls of the dice is too short a test of the likelihood of this expected outcome. In the short run a wide variation of decisions could likely occur.

Rolling this pair of dice 36 times does not allow the law of averages to work it's magic. The real impact of this exercise is fully realized when rolling the same two dice 144 times.

Having performed this exercise many times, I can attest to the outcome of decisions having only ever slightly varied from their expected number of appearances. The 2 & 12 would occur four times, the 3 & 11 would be eight times and so on.

Given an adequate number of trials, the outcome is a mathematical certainty.

In craps, the house percentage on pass line and don't pass bets are 1.41%. This means that for every $100 that is wagered on these line bets the house wins $1.41. This percentage is misleading.

In addition to the 1.41%, the casino is expected to win approximately 50% of all bets on either side. This changes the percentage to 51.41% or just over half of all wagers.

So what should you take away from this exercise? Most players approach the game with unrealistic expectations. The numbers will tend to appear in nearly perfect alignment with their expected outcome and their expected number of times. The key is in the sequence in which they occur.

The player's hope of catching a winning roll or a hot shooter lies in the potential to catch a favorable sequence of numbers.

My having performed this exercise for you may be somewhat helpful. It is more likely the full realization of what one can expect the dice to do at the crap tables can only be truly understood by performing it for yourself.

If your serious about winning at craps, this will give you a new and better understanding of the game. It worked for me.