The first two weeks in April, has been marred by some pretty interesting events. First of all, central banks in Japan BOJ surprise after they decided to market aggressively in easingnya quantitative policy in an attempt to elevate the level of inflation to 2% in the next 2 years.

Secondly, we have also witnessed how China's economic growth rate is decreasing to 7.7% year on year in the first quarter yesterday, below the 7.9% level seen in the fourth quarter of 2012.

This data is only one of a number of data-data that negative tone about the prospects for economic growth in the world this year.

The IMF itself has also lowered its world economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the year 2013. Which
Finally, and most surprising is the fact that gold prices are currently trading at USD 1380/oz Area, far below the level of USD 1600-an/oz are still visible in March.

The fall of the price of gold itself is actually happening in just 4 sessions, and could make investors panic especially as the price of gold itself has led to indiscriminate sell-off that also occurs in almost all other commodities.

The existence of an actionable risk aversion in the market itself has made many market observers have argued that the phenomenon of "sell in May and go away" has started earlier in the month of April.

Actually, it may be said that this incident alone 3 is still relevant. Drop off of the price of gold began with a correction in gold prices due to stronger USD exchange rate in the market.

The price of gold had dropped slowly from USD 1600/oz to USD 1550/oz in early April after the USD rose quite sharply, particularly against the JPY at which the exchange rate USD-JPY was approaching level 100.

At the end of last week, the risk aversion associated with disillusionment with the pace of China's growth has made the act of panic selling in the market that led to the price of gold fell sharply to USD 1380/oz at this time.

Why can USD sharply higher against the JPY?.

Why risk aversion suddenly sticking and what exactly the future growth prospects of China?.

These are 2 very important things for us to learn, especially if we also want to know if the action against the sell-off of gold at the end of last week is one thing that is "overdone".

Strengthening of the USD against the JPY is not difficult for us to understand. Conditions in the U.S. and Japan is now arguably quite contradictory.

The data in the U.S. since the beginning of this year shows that there is a considerable recoveri in the country, especially with the unemployment rate back at 7.6%, its lowest level since 2009.

This makes the central bank the Federal Reserve in the United States began preparing for an end to the policy of quantitative easingnya. In Japan, the central bank will begin a new BOJ quantitative policy easingnya more aggressive.

In theory, if both policies are run in the same period, the amount of money in the form of JPY to be printed will be counted more than the amount of money in the form of USD, and the exchange rate of the core will continue to strengthen against the USD JPY.

We can also see similar events seen in the USD to GBP exchange rate, also with the anticipation that the central bank will add funds to the BOE quantitative easingnya program.

Regarding the outlook for the future growth of the world economy itself, our view is still not much different than our outlook at the beginning of this year. Although China's growth rate declined slightly to 7.7% in the first quarter, we assess that the prospects for investment growth in China is still very high and this will continue to lift the economy as a whole.

The high growth in bank credit and financing social level is still very high which makes us continue to believe that China's economic growth rate could still reach 8% in 2013 for this.

Actually matters and actions resulting sell-off in the market is the fact that the market may seem too optimistic on growth prospects for the world economy since the beginning of this year. The fact that the world economy will grow 3-3.5% Area for this year to be the bitter news that swallowed up by the investors in the market, due to their view that the growth of the world economy should be able to return in Area 4% at this time.

In the middle of these two phenomena, gold is an asset that is easiest to "beaten" especially given that the level of speculation in this sector alone arguably quite high since the end of 2011. For the moment, we see that the risk of continued decline in the gold price could be much less because the quest will still impress the market has entered a bearish mode.

No matter how, other fundamental factors we can not ignore, and interest rates are still clearly visible very low in the world today means that the actual gold price outlook is still quite positive in a period of 1-2 years.

If the decline in gold prices today seem a bit overdone, and also added our view of the potential of China's economic growth is still fairly supportive, it is not possible gold price could go back up to the end of this year after the end of the action we see panic selling in the market.