To the oil-producing nations, it must have seemed like forever that Crude Oil prices slid down, down, and down some more after the remarkable Highs of last Summer.
To those nations whose budgets were based on the assumption of Crude prices at $85 or $100 per barrel, assumptions were thrown askew as prices descended below those levels and then down as far as $44 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia may not have cared terribly much, since among all producing nations it is the low-cost producer at - we have heard - only $3 per barrel.
But to those countries which harbor special agendas, such as Iran and Venezuela, $44 oil bit hard.
Now, with oil at about $68 per barrel, Mr.
Chavez has a freer hand in subsidizing his own favored client states such as Cuba and Honduras.
He may not be aware of it, but that little party is going to come to an end.
Surely there can be little doubt that the massive decline in Crude prices since last Summer was an impulsive move, a demonstration of a major trend in motion.
What we have seen since the bottom in March 2009 is an upward a-b-c correction of that underlying trend.
That correction has now run its course.
It is in the nature of all upward corrections that, when they are done, prices revert to levels lower than those which obtained before the correction began.
This necessarily means that we will see Crude Oil below $44 per barrel - possibly below $30.
Once again, this will raise havoc with the budgets of most of the producing nations, while industrial and individual consumers will be delighted.
In particular, the Candlestick pattern in Crude Oil today lends credence to the proposition that, indeed, the price of Crude has peaked and is now headed Down again.
True, one day does not a trend make.
Even so, we see a tall black price bar today (a "down" day) which bearishly engulfed the "real body" price action of the two preceding days and nearly engulfed the day before that.
We take this pattern to be bearish.
In addition, it appears that Monday's high was the top of Wave 2 of the first down-up move in a decline.
When and if prices now continue to decline below 67.
40 - the low of Wave 1 - the die will have been cast and prices should continue to fall thereafter.
If this scenario comes to pass, we can expect to see a recurrence of budget troubles in Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Iraq too.
Old assumptions will be put to the test again, and will be found wanting.
One can foresee the possibilities of civil unrest; and one wonders what effect may be felt by the hugely repressive regime in Iran which, unfortunately, again holds its own people in thrall, now to a greater extent than ever.
Whichever way Crude Oil prices may go from here, we know this much: their likely course will be foretold by the Candlestick patterns in the price charts.